Rise of the TIMBIs
Forget the BRICs. The real economies that will shake up the world over the next few decades need a new acronym.
JACK A. GOLDSTONE
Nov. 30 marked the 10th anniversary of Goldman Sachs economist Jim O’Neill’s anointing of the BRIC economies — Brazil, Russia, India, and China — as the future leaders of the global economy. Yet 10 years on, the notion of the BRICs already seems out of date. In China and Russia, demographic patterns have shifted. Their working-age populations are declining, as are exports, while still-rigid political systems stifle free thought and hamper technical advance.
Future trends still look robust in Brazil and India, but these countries should now be in new company — a group of dynamic and democratic emerging economies. Let’s call them the TIMBIs: Turkey, India, Mexico, Brazil, and Indonesia. These countries form more than just a cute acronym. They all share favorable demographics and democracy and are already large economies. Their GDPs combined have already surpassed that of China and will be much faster growing in the coming decades. Their combination of booming labor forces and political openness points to rapid increases in human capital and innovation that will propel these regional powers into global powers in the near future.